As a student of political science, my training obliges me to be dispationate and very quantitative in my overview of politics and its trends
As a student of the famous Political Science School of the University of Ibadan where I learnt very studiously under such great scholars like Prof Kunle Amuwo, Rotimi Suberu and Fred Onyeoziri, I must remain dispassionate in my analysis of our political space
Truth be told, when I look very objectively at the upcoming elections and their prospects, it has become very clear and from all empirical deductions that the Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led APC will clear all elections with very wide margins even if it’s free and fair elections
For those of you who care to listen and ask why let me give reasons
Nigerian politics is not an emotive enterprise. You do not achieve anything by crying foul, by throwing ethnicity or by screaming cheating
The way Nigerian politics has been played in the last 20 years has made my first two years at the Ibadan School of Politics almost obsolete
All the ideologies that we were taught were expected to guide political processes, and which guides behaviour have been thrown to the dogs
What we now have is what I call – open-eye politics. Open-eye politics is the umbrella label for agberoism, luku luku politics, anywhere belle face and thuggery all that best describes our political process and which Bola Ahmed Tinubu is king in this space
What has left my University of Ibadan degree with some credibility is the third year course – Nigerian Politics and Government, yesterday, today and tomorrow, in which I wrote a brilliant essay that gave me an ‘A’.
That course looked very succinctly at the Nigerian environment and accurately identified the – open eye politics which was then in its infancy
Do not forget that this was the early years of the IBB ‘mess up’ in politics long before the fiasco that was June 12.
Then the Adedibus – early fathers of Bola Tinubu in that school were reigning and in the East, you could see them Arthur Nzeribe swigging up and down with the Military still struggling to hold on to political Ideology with its Politburo and other creations like the two parties that were set up along clear political ideological leanings
Remember that Tinubu was an eagle-eyed apprentice in those days as he stood behind the founding fathers of Open Eye politics learning all he needed to learn in preparation for his emergence
That early still in my third year, I had written an essay where I stated very categorically that IBB would scuttle the elections
I remember one of my professors – I’ve forgotten his name now – he was later Political adviser to Gen Diya – called me to ask how I arrived at my deductions
I explained very clearly that we must look outside the stunting boxes of ideology which were limiting us in the faculty and must look very clearly at the energising colouration of our political elites and their ethos
Themes that started from immediately after the first coup – corruption, tribalism, weakening institutions and personality worship had started gaining serious grounds and these were subsuming the need for greater good and tying leadership and decision making and pushing it towards decisions that would only serve a tiny cabal – military or not
The very brilliant Prof looked at me and openly wondered – you wey no dey come class, how come you come knw this thing like this.
He gave me an A and told me, even him, didn’t get an A in that class which was the most important class in our four years in Political Science
Truly, two years after IBB did not hand over and by this time I was in Unilag pursuing my Master’s in Political Science, but this time in International Relations where I also predicted the castration of the United Nations and they still gave me an A again.
You see, with all these accolades, I have poured on myself, let me explain why except Jesus comes down, Tinubu will not clear the whole elections come 2027.
Tinubu is a good student of Open Eye politics and he has imbibed the fearlessnes nd outright bullishness of the motor park tout
He brays and barks very aggressively and except for a few like El Rufai, most fall down and just die
Like the Motor Park tout, his courage lasts only to the extent that you don’t fight back.
Once you push back, he capitulates and starts begging and u begin to wonder what happened to the monster that had just broken a bottle on its own head
Now the marked difference between Tinubu and his motor park cousin is that rather than push back, he comes at you with soft power
Negotiations, bribes, concessions, threats and all are thrown at you till you capitulate and start doing a Reno for him.
I can write millions of words on his effective use of negative soft power to arrive at the nest of power that he has used but let me concentrate on the alternate structure that he has built sitting on the nefarious soft power mentioned to hold down power.
I once sat with him at his Ikoyi home seeking permission to write a book on him
He looked at me intermittently and handed me over to his aide to work with me
In those five minutes, when I was almost alone with him, I saw a man who seemed dead to every other thing but his ambition
Remember at this time, he was just Party Leader with no real state power but his house was filled to the brim by associates including almost the whole of the Lagos state cabinet at the time, making me ask the then Governor how he was working if everybody including his Chief of Staff where in Ikoyi on a Monday morning
Today APC is the only party with full Federal presence cascading to every level of governance all over the country
APC is the only well-organised and structured party not disturbed by any court case and with a singular purpose – 2027
The others are busy suckling with all sorts of distractions – LP, PDP and even the newly formed ADC all have one K-leg or the other distracting them from the course.
The last APC convention showed a party ready, showed a party well oiled, showed a party well structured and a singular purpose that even a prayed-for internal combustion doesn’t even look it.
They not only have national presence, but they also have leaders with national recognition and with enough clout to deliver on their electoral expectations
The rest have one person or at best two people – ADC has pulled in the largest numbers of pseudo-national figures but do u honestly think anybody in Owo Central Market knows David Mark or anybody in Maiduguri will vote Amaechi despite his traditional title in one of the Emirates
Kwakwanso is only popular in Kano, and you can see that ApC is working on splitting that state
Then by the time you now drop Seyi Tinubu’s City Boy Movement which in some states is overwhelming APC state structures with its aggressive penetration, you begin to see what I am saying.
In an APGA state like Anambra, the Governor is singing APC songs with his daughter leading the City Movement in that state
Make no mistake about it especially in a political environment that is being led by mass poverty which has been weaponised, tribalism and the entrenchment of the cult of personalities, you will see that there is no hope for an ideologically-driven push back by the rest of us
So honestly speaking except for an Abacha type occurrence which would mean us expecting lightening to strike twice in one place then we should be having a Tinubu victory with the widest margin in any elections in Africa even if it was free and fair.
Now am I recommending that those of us in opposition just fall and die if there is no divine intervention?
My first response will be that for this 2027, it’s over. It’s a Tinubu Victory. He has laid his bed well and should be allowed to lie perfectly.
He has done a brilliant job of political mobilisation and political sagacity and for that, I say, well done, sir
For the rest of us, we must start the work for 2030 NOW
We must seize back the narrative, throw up serious young leaders who will leverage technology to push and create opportunities for Nigerians taking advantage of the succession struggle that will envelop the APC in this second term
APC will likely implode in this second term cos Baba will either want to stay beyond tenor barring health challenges, push Nigeria towards Republicanism with his state police policy amongst others or definitely want to impose his successor who will most likely come from his Yoruba stock, which would lead to an impasse.
Opposition must be ready to stoke this, exacerbate it, and foster a crisis within the APC while building a new stock of leadership discarding the present stock except maybe El Rufai who has shown tremendous courage under fire
Atiku, Obi, Mark, and Amaechi all have passed their sell-by dates and have no credibility to sell to a new crop of voters.
Post 2027, Gen Z will have come of age and if they maintain their ‘craziness’ then we can leverage that to build a new national framework that would eschew tribalism and avarice and throw to the centre a national wealth creation ethos that would lead political discussions and ideology.
We would need an Elon Musk-type entrepreneurial leadership
A leadership that does not need the government to make money or sustain it and we have many from the tech and entertainment space
All they need is sufficient hunger to change things and we put structures around them or they come together and identify a leader and put resources around him and push
My people, for this 2027, it’s Tinubus race to lose and from what is on the ground, I don’t see anything stopping him from breasting the tape and from my shrine, let me be the first to congratulate him.
Well done, sir, you have done well, we will meet in 2030.
Come and beat me
Thanks
Duke of Shomolu
Last modified: March 29, 2026
