I have taken my time to consult, marinate and think through what just happened in this our dear Lagos before I put my thoughts on paper
What we just saw was an intrigue of the highest order pulling in ego, machiavellian machinations, 2027, Political hegemony, loyalty, betrayal and the quest to hold together a diminishing empire.
Let me start from this angle – SANWO-OLU has obviously lost his relationship with the powers that be.
From my consultations, its looking like he has not been forgiven for the embarrassing loss of Lagos to Peter Obi in the last elections. He is also being accused of secretly funding an opposition Presidential candidate.
This seeming cold front may have left him shouting that the EFCC is coming after him showing the total breakdown in relations between him and the powers that be
Now the Seyi factor sneaks in. Observers have alluded that he may want to run for the state and that his timing may not be totally auspicious.
He has been advised, according to sources, to calm down till after 2027, cos they can’t be fighting in two theatres of war at the same time
It is in this regard that Ambode is getting a thawing. The idea is that Ambode, with his tremendous goodwill, would come in and serve a second term and, after that, ease Seyi into the seat.
Perfect abi? But Obasa thinks otherwise. He wants to be Governor and says it boldly after serving for ten years, keeping Governors in check for the master.
I am better than all those who have served, he declares, and starts disrespecting the incumbent,t knowing fully well that that one is having issues
He refuses to confirm his Commissioner nominees, keeps him waiting for hours at the Budget presentation and just carries on like a stubborn goat
This catches the ire of some influential members of the GAC, the powerful group that holds Lagos down on behalf of the master.
Sanwo sees this as an opportunity and moves. He must weaken Obasa or at most take him out to be sure of his fate if not future within the establishment
The winds are blowing very strongly against him, and he must move, and the timing is right.
Obasa is becoming increasingly unpopular amongst his colleagues; his overbearing approach to leadership is not helping matters and his arrogant and uncouth mode is also counting heavily against him.
So the move is made, and it’s clinical. A huge majority votes him out while abroad and a woman from a Lagos ruling family is put in his stead.
The impossible has happened. A blow to the core of the establishment has just happened and this has stunned observers
Even the wildly strategic Fashola candt do it and the massively popular Ambode candbt do it, it is under the unassuming SANWO-OLU that this happens confirming my earlier prediction
In responding to queries on my ardent support of SANWO-OLU’s candidacy as against my well-known opposition to his godfather’s candidacy, I had said that, like Gorbachev, he stood a good chance of fostering reforms from within.
Anyhow, the first few days of the coup were calm. Obasa was in faraway America, with his colleagues were clinking their wine glasses, congratulating themselves on a job well.
The President at this time was less interested as he was busy with State business. He was out of the country when it happened.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that Obasa tried to reach him outside of the country and in the country but was rebuffed, citing his loss of relevance.
Now it gets more intriguing.
The inexperience of the coupists begins to show as they relax and start moving on.
The first sign of trouble. They fly to Abuja with the new Leader and meet a cold shudder.
They were told-you cannot have speaker and Governor from the same zone, go back and balance it out
Their inexperience killing them, they went back to do a vote of confidence on Mama, ignoring the clear threat of leaving the largest voting block in the country without fair representation thereby jeopardising Ogas 2027 ambitions.
Obasa, seeing this, now starts working on that crack. He gets mummy’s support, and mummy impresses it on Emperor that this is a move against you and not Obasa and that if he doesn’t nip it now, it will be him they will be coming for.
Now, in the midst of these, the Lagos Descendants fall in.
Their push as natural indigenes begins to emerge. Their irritation of not having a say in their own state is rising very fast
So they see Meranda’s energy as a good thing and throw their weight around her.
The natural rulers also stand firm, boosting their representatives in the house to stand firm.
The Oniru monarch is at the centre, pulling in his brother Oba the flamboyant King who is his neighbour and who was keen but later pulled out.
The line of descent stretches from the Lagos House of Assembly, passes through Government House, hits GAC, touches natural indigenes, and enters Aso Rock, where a top operative who used to run Lagos in a secretarial position was a pivot.
This bulwark was so strong that when Madam Speaker was given the marching orders to resign, it took her over 30 days to do that cos of the strong support she was getting from rebel forces.
In pushing their positions, the pro-Meranda forces made the absolute mistake of seeing this as a kick-out Obasa campaign and not seeing its far-reaching effects on first the establishments hold on Lagos and its plans for a second term at the presidency
This was now being seen as treason and justifiably so
The push for 2027, is at best filled with thorns
It was Chief Obasanjo who told me that to win a Presidential election, you need Lagos, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Kano and Rivers for very obvious reasons
In the southwest, Osun and Oyo are with PDP leaving tiny Ogun and Ekiti firmly with APC.
Rivers is still shaky, and everything is being done to neutralise it.
Akwa Ibom is PDP even though there are rumours that the Governor will be ‘converted’. (his predecessor has just been picked up)
Kano is firmly in opposition and a popular Emir-installed
The South East states are not happy and may be very unwilling brides
So it is not in this carnage that someone will now go and be doing
Shege shege in Lagos
This is why the whole thing had to be squashed once and for all.
The authorities moved in, the CP Lagos changed, immediately the protective cover for Madam speaker was removed, Obasa’s own returned, and the die was cast.
The flamboyant Oba pulled out from fear, strong signals and warnings sent to the other former policeman Oba and from there, the whole thing started unravelling.
Immediately Obasa was reelected, and the 38 who had called Press conferences against Obasa started clapping for him Madam stepped down to deputy speakership
Although rumours are rife that Obasa would resign eventually, the blow has been dealt on the establishment
A 45-day stand out pulling in strong voices of discent is a slap on the establishment that could herald an unravelling if an effective mop-up is not immediately put in place
The next few days will be tense. The Governor would be in a tight spot with Obasa back, Meranda also and her brother.
The GAC would also have to look inwards again to ask themselves what happened, why the loss of cohesion
My candid advice is – that SANWO should immediately embark if he has not started on a fence-mending push that would involve GAC members, such as influential Lagos leaders like Oba Akiolu and Rasaq Okoya. He should also involve international leaders like the Chagorys and the South African and the Ghanian Presidents
This is very key for his continued peace while in office, and much more importantly, for his peace after office
Obasa should also rebuild his stance in the house. He faced a major revolt and only got his seat back through undemocratic means. He shd beg them, persuade them and engage them
He cannot lead with vindictiveness or pursue a revenge otherwise he will be tossed out again
GAC must also be on the centre of a fence mending. They must look at the bigger picture otherwise they would lose relevance
I do not even see them being relevant by the time Seyi energises with his young Turks. These are the last days of GAC go and mark my words
The members of the House must also go and learn conviction.
You can’t be shouting Aluta in one breath, and in the other breath, you are clapping for the same man you kicked out. What changed?
You cannot push a treasonable position and then come back and clap and hope things would continue like nothing happened.
President Tinubu should be a father. He should forgive.
He should pull everybody together and accept that people must be allowed to air their views freely without recriminations so that we do notnm get to this point again
Internal democracy must be enshrined cos as it is now we are veering into absolute monarchy which will not augur well.
President Tinubu is today the biggest ever Nigerian personality.
In some quarters, we are beginning to hear of the Tinibu era as against the era of the founding fathers, but he still is finding it difficult to transmute into statesmanship
He has moved from Party leader to President and its now time for him to move to the immortal levels of the Awolowos, Azikiwes and Ahnadu Bellos but he cannot achieve that with this his ‘amalarization’ of politics.
He must begin to think about legacy and his place in history in all he does so that althisse hard work wilnotot go to nought
Come and beat me
Thanks
Duke of Shomolu
