I sat in front of a huge investment banker discussing my new plays coming up in London when suddenly he looks at his system and exhales – ahhhh, First Bank is on fire. What does Otedola want?
That has continued to be the question that has bugged me since First Holdco shares literally caught fire.
What does he want, even as I put a call through to him yday and he replies in Yoruba – ma kpie pada, mo wa ni meeting
He never calls back, not that I expected him to, even as I continue to ponder the question: what does he want?
He has gone against very fundamental boundaries in Business; to the best of my knowledge, he seems to have streamlined his exposure – exiting Geregu and pushing almost all he has into First Holdco
Apart from maybe a smattering of investments here and there, and possible large real estate holdings internationally and a reported planned investment in his friend Dangote Refinery, the vast bulk of his exposure could most likely be in FirstHoldco, bulking the simple business risk of concentration
But what does Otedola want?
As I look at the amazing figures this morning, I see much more than wealth creation and ownership of an iconic institution but a…..
Let me hold that first and regale you with the figures just in case you have been living under a rock and have not seen the figures
So far, Mr Otedola has spent $160m of his own money, not loans lifting his stake from $1.07b to $1.08b
He has so far acquired 1.7b shares, spending N222. 21b, making that the largest single purchase
His total holdings stand at 11. 9b shares from 10.1b, with a total valuation now standing at N1. 4trillion.
Just this week, his FirstHoldco overtook Zenith as the most valuable.
With this positioning, he can push to trigger the Exchange 30% rule, which allows him to make an offer for the rest of the shares.
All he needs is 13. 5b out of the threshold of 45.5b to do this
What does Otedola want, I keep asking as I peruse these figures.
Follow me
On Tuesday, FirstHoldco closed with a Market Cap of N5. 7 trillion ahead of Zenith, which stood at N5. 2trillion and GTB at N4. 8 trilliin
Some critics have said – Femi is just pumping up these prices, taking advantage of the obtuse float situation in the market to drive the prices and mop up at artificial levels
But then again, I run to his results and they seem to put a lie on those assertions
It appears that this price rally rests on earnings, not priced in pre tax profits.
They made N653. 5b for 6 months, an increase of 83.5% on 356.15b year on year
The second quarter PBT hit 95%
In response, the share gained 165% yoy climbing to N127 up from N47.9, reflecting shares issued but not necessarily value
Now what we need to really look at at this point is its impact on those holding the shares which is the main issue in all of this
A cursory look at FirstHoldco’s earnings per share and you will see N8. 86 as against Zenith’s N7. 64, with a trailing 12-month N25. 37, a far cry from FirstHoldco’s N1. 09 as a result of its massive impairment charge same time last year
But PE ratio-wise, which measures number of years it takes to recover investments, GTB at 5.44x and Zenith at 4.5x make both a better buy for the long-term investor since FirstHoldco’s PE stands between 10.1x and 14.4x, offering less intrinsic value for the buy/hold institutional investor
That said, and back to the overriding question in this essay, what does Otedola want
I think the answer is buried not too deeply in his best-sellerbook – making it big, lessons of a life in business
If you read that book very carefully, you will see an impairment which, rather than provide a barrier, serves as a fuel that triggers inordinate ambition
He found out very early that the academic challenge wasn’t for him, so he decided to follow his instinct of carving out opportunities and maximising them
From a commissioned agent in his father’s Printing business, to finding himself in credit, down to diesel, which gave him fame and astounding wealth, to real estate and later Finance, you would see a man struggle to prove a point in a paper qualification-driven environment and show that despite that perceived challenge, he can win at the game
If you now take that energy and mix it with the stubbornness hewn from the streets and a superb spirit for competition, you just might understand what he wants
Its a huge journey of proving a point, a digging in and a thumb in the eye of elitist academic snobbery that leads to the rubbishing of economic aristocracy – key in the sacks, key in the abrubt sell off, key in the advocacy – bankers should not own private jets, key in the disrespect for top bankers and you get a very strong psychological need to rise to the top and stay there while making sure that academic elitist snobbery is exposed for what it is – vapour.
If I’m correct, would it be right?
I have no answer and would not even attempt it, as every man has a right to his demons, especially as this particular demon is not only oiling a system, creating wealth, it’s also proving a strong point that needs to be made at this point, and if I am wrong, then he can…
come and beat me
Thanks
Duke of Shomolu
Last modified: July 31, 2026
